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5 July 2022,02:46
市场前瞻
5 July 2022, 02:46
市场焦点
由于美国独立日假期，美国股市昨天仍然在休市，但在本周美联储和欧洲央行的货币政策会议记录之前，谨慎的情绪对投资者的情绪施加了看跌压力。美国股票指数和欧洲债券的期货下跌，因为投资者担心全球央行加快货币紧缩的步伐会减缓经济增长。对经济的担忧使风险状况保持疲软，这反过来又帮助美元保持上行势头。
从经济数据来看，欧元区5月份的生产者价格指数上升了0.6%，低于市场预期的1%，这继续证明欧洲央行有必要加息。令人沮丧的欧洲数据削弱了对欧元的需求，而在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的情况下，能源危机也成为该货币的一个不利因素。市场的焦点现在已经转移到了周三的FOMC最新会议记录和周五的非农就业报告，因为市场参与者预计美联储将加息75个基点。
主要货币
本周的开始很缓慢，因为美国市场因国庆节假期而休市。周一前半段，美元指数处于假日气氛中，稳定地保持在105.1附近，然后在一天结束时获得一些力量，达到105.198。然而，由于一些交易员远离他们的办公桌，行动受到限制。
英镑兑美元在周一开始时被看涨势头所包围，甚至在1.2154附近达到日高，但随后失去了看涨的牵引力，跌至1.2105附近，因为英国脱欧的困境削弱了对英镑的需求。与此同时，欧元兑美元从上周五的低点1.039附近反弹至周一中点的日高1.045附近。然而，令人沮丧的欧洲经济数据削弱了对欧元的需求，欧元兑美元收于1.0425。
黄金继续保持从上周五日低1786美元以下获得的反弹势头，并设法达到1812.5美元以上，然后跌至1805美元以下，因为加息的预期使黄金的吸引力下降。
技术分析
1）美元兑日元（USDJPY；4小时图）
在撰写本文时，美元兑日元已经向135.70附近推进。美元兑日元在经历了修正后转为上行。从目前的水平来看，低于135.70阻力位的疲软将继续在134.89找到强有力的支撑。如果该支撑位被突破，那么将引发新的技术性卖盘，使该货币对进一步滑向南方。另一方面，如果货币对能够突破135.70的阻力位，并进一步突破上升趋势线，那么美元兑日元有可能吸引更多的买家，将货币对提升到136.00和137.00的心理水平之上。
阻力：1.35.70, 137.00
支撑：134.89, 134.24, 133.59
2）英镑兑美元（GBPUSD；4小时图）
周一，英镑兑美元在1.2100附近徘徊。该货币对在接近1.1934区域附近的支撑水平后扭转了方向。由于RSI指标保持在低位，表明买家暂时仍在观望，英镑看起来要重新夺回其位置。同时，MACD已经转为正值，显示出从看跌到看涨的反转趋势。上行方面，英镑兑美元正朝着下一个阻力位1.2227前进。如果该货币对能成功突破该水平，那么它将继续朝北走。下行方面，如果1.1934的支撑位最终不能守住该线，那么英镑兑美元将进一步滑向南方。
阻力：1.2227, 1.2408, 1.2555
支撑：1.1934
3）黄金（Gold；4小时图）
在上周的下跌之后，黄金在周一艰难地实现了复苏。尽管黄金试图攀升到1800美元的水平之上，但它仍然受到适度的看跌压力，保持在下降通道内。目前，尽管RSI指标保持在中线以下，但黄金看起来被布林带中线所限制，很难进一步向北移动。黄金需要攀升至1,835美元以上，才能在短期内重新获得牛市。反过来说，如果目前1784美元的支撑位不能守住，那么黄金将进一步加速南下。
阻力：1835.026, 1866.243
支撑：1784.565
以行业低点差和闪电般的执行速度交易外汇、指数、贵金属等。
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