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19 April 2024,03:18
Weekly Outlook
19 April 2024, 03:18
下周焦点: 4月22日当周(GMT+8)
在三月份，政府修订了先前的估算，表明美国经济在十月到十二月期间以强劲的年增长率达到了3.4%。最初，它报告了同一时期略低的增长率，为3.2%。这一增长代表了经济以超过2%的年增长率连续第六个季度增长。美国经济分析局的报告指出，最近的更新主要反映了消费支出和非住宅固定投资的增加，尽管部分被私人库存投资的下降部分抵消。鉴于美国经济没有减速的迹象，分析师和市场预计未来将进一步出现通货膨胀，并保持持续增长。
截至4月13日当周，美国申请失业保险福利的个人数量经过季节调整后仍然保持在212,000人。尽管美联储试图降温，但美国劳动力市场仍然持续繁荣，而美国的通货膨胀仍然较高。然而，近期公司裁员的公告数量激增，尤其是在科技和媒体行业。诸如Alphabet（谷歌的母公司）、苹果、eBay、TikTok、Snap、亚马逊、思科系统和洛杉矶时报等主要企业都最近宣布了裁员计划。因此，预计即将发布的数据可能显示出就业市场的放缓和撤退。
在三月份，日本央行首次在17年内提高了其基准利率，标志着一段旨在刺激经济的负利率时期的结束。消息来源表明，日本银行正在转向更具自主性的政策制定方法，减少了对通胀的关注。这一调整发生在日本央行在三月份做出历史性决定，结束一项激进刺激计划之后，央行制定其货币政策的过程中。鉴于货币政策处于保持状态，即将到来的决定可能不会带来意外的惊喜。
在二月份，美国的物价出现了放缓，尤其是在房屋和能源以外的服务成本方面，这一放缓明显。美联储偏好的指标个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数在二月份上涨了0.3%，较之前的0.5%有所下降。这种情况增加了美联储在六月份可能降息的可能性。分析师指出，核心服务价格通胀正在放缓，并预计将持续到今年年底。因此，市场可能预期即将发布的指标将显示出持续的降温迹象。
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